Sunset Hunter

How good will the sunrise be?

How good will the sunset be?

My forecast for every sunrise and sunset in Bariloche. It looks at the clouds where the sun goes down and at the real mountains, which here hide the sun well before it sets.

Sunrise on Monday 2, 06:30 ·

fair

low confidence

Golden hour: 06:13–07:09; The sun is low, 6° above to 4° below the horizon: warm, raking light and long shadows. The best light for photos, and the time to be at the lookout.
Blue hour: 06:01–06:13; With the sun 4° to 6° below the horizon the sky turns deep blue and high clouds can still light up. That's why it pays not to leave the moment the sun goes.
Cerro Otto, rotating cafeteria: clears 06:29 · Cerro Acordeón; The lookout where the sun clears the mountains first.

Where to look

▲ Summits: not lookouts. You get there trekking or climbing.

From Cerro Otto, rotating cafeteria the sun clears the mountains at 06:29, over Cerro Acordeón. The real skyline towards the sun, from the lookout you pick. Height is exaggerated so it reads. The clouds are the forecast's: high 14%, mid 7% and low towards the sun 11%. Measure the sky →

The lookouts

The sky is nearly the same from all of them; what changes is when the sun goes. If you're at one at sunset, measure the sky: that's how the forecast learns.

Playa Centro
clears 06:47 · +16 min
Measure the sky Directions ↗
Cerro Otto, rotating cafeteria
clears 06:29
over Cerro Acordeón
Go up by cable car (Av. de los Pioneros km 5) or drive the gravel road. Check the cable car's hours: it doesn't always run until sunset.
Measure the sky Directions ↗
Cerro Campanario
clears 06:33 · +3 min
over Cerro Guacho
Go up by chairlift (Av. Bustillo km 17.5) or on foot, a steep trail of about half an hour. Check the chairlift's hours: it doesn't always run until sunset.
Measure the sky Directions ↗

Why it says what it says

The score multiplies four factors. Each one says how much of the show survives: if one is zero there's no sunset, however perfect the others. It isn't an average, so the lowest one rules.

46% × 86% × 97% × 100% = 38% of an ideal sunset. The scale is tough on purpose, like Sunsethue's (80 or more is very rare): that makes 32.

Clouds to colour?

46%

Mid and high clouds over you: they're the ones that turn red and pink. Best is half the sky covered; neither empty nor closed.

Does the light reach them?

86%

Towards the sun, over Chile and the Pacific, there mustn't be low clouds cutting off the low light.

Is the air clear?

97%

Very humid air washes the colour out.

No rain or fog?

100%

If it's raining or foggy where you are, there's no show.

What holds it back today: Hardly any mid or high clouds: the sky will have its glow, but there's no canvas to turn red and pink.

Coming up

Sunrise and sunset for the next three days. The more orange the card, the better it looks; the one with the teal border is the one above.

Tomorrow

Monday 2

Sunrise 06:30
32
fair
Sunset 20:26
20
fair

The day after

Tuesday 3

Sunrise 06:29
23
fair
Sunset

Forecast updated at 23:59. It refreshes every hour.

Looking at the sky…

How it works

I take low, mid and high cloud cover from three models (ECMWF, ICON and GFS) along the line towards the sun: overhead, on the near horizon and 100–400 km out, where the low light slips in under the clouds.

The best case is a half-covered sky of mid and high clouds with a clear horizon towards the sun. The score runs 0 to 100 and leans low like Sunsethue's: 80 or more is very rare.

The skyline comes from a 30 m terrain model. From Playa Centro in summer, Cerro Otto hides the sun almost an hour before it sets.

I calibrate it against what really happens: I note how each sunset turned out, and anyone at a lookout can measure the sky with their phone.

Where to look

▲ Summits: not lookouts. You get there trekking or climbing.

The lookouts

The sky is nearly the same from all of them; what changes is when the sun goes. If you're at one at sunset, measure the sky: that's how the forecast learns.

Playa Centro
clears 06:47 · +16 min
Measure the sky Directions ↗
Cerro Otto, rotating cafeteria
clears 06:29
over Cerro Acordeón
Go up by cable car (Av. de los Pioneros km 5) or drive the gravel road. Check the cable car's hours: it doesn't always run until sunset.
Measure the sky Directions ↗
Cerro Campanario
clears 06:33 · +3 min
over Cerro Guacho
Go up by chairlift (Av. Bustillo km 17.5) or on foot, a steep trail of about half an hour. Check the chairlift's hours: it doesn't always run until sunset.
Measure the sky Directions ↗

Why it says what it says

The score multiplies four factors. Each one says how much of the show survives: if one is zero there's no sunset, however perfect the others. It isn't an average, so the lowest one rules.

46% × 86% × 97% × 100% = 38% of an ideal sunset. The scale is tough on purpose, like Sunsethue's (80 or more is very rare): that makes 32.

Clouds to colour?

46%

Mid and high clouds over you: they're the ones that turn red and pink. Best is half the sky covered; neither empty nor closed.

Does the light reach them?

86%

Towards the sun, over Chile and the Pacific, there mustn't be low clouds cutting off the low light.

Is the air clear?

97%

Very humid air washes the colour out.

No rain or fog?

100%

If it's raining or foggy where you are, there's no show.

What holds it back today: Hardly any mid or high clouds: the sky will have its glow, but there's no canvas to turn red and pink.

How good will the sunrise be?

How good will the sunset be?

Where to look

The lookouts

Why it says what it says

Coming up

How it works

How good will the sunrise be?

Where to look

The lookouts

Why it says what it says

Coming up

Four example skies